金荣中国：美CPI数据基本符合预期，金价触底反弹加剧震荡

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a rebound on August 12, with an opening price of $3349.37 per ounce, a high of $3359.25, a low of $3331.08, and a closing price of $3349.80 [1] Economic Data - The U.S. July CPI adjusted month-on-month recorded 0.2%, matching market expectations, while the previous value was 0.3% [2] - The core CPI for July adjusted month-on-month was 0.3%, also in line with expectations, with the previous value at 0.2% [2] - The unadjusted core CPI year-on-year for July was 3.1%, exceeding market expectations of 3.0%, and the previous value was 2.9% [2] - The unadjusted CPI year-on-year for July was 2.7%, below market expectations of 2.8%, with the previous value also at 2.7% [2] - Concerns have arisen regarding the quality of inflation and employment reports due to budget cuts and staff reductions affecting data collection in certain regions [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Following the July employment report, the threshold for interest rate cuts has changed, with the July CPI data not being high enough to disrupt plans for a September rate cut [3] - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin suggested that the Federal Reserve should consider a 50 basis point rate cut in September if the data is accurate [4] - Fed officials indicated that tariffs have a limited impact on inflation, suggesting a patient approach to policy changes rather than immediate rate cuts [6] - There are signs that middle and low-income consumers are feeling more financially strained than in previous years, which may suppress consumer spending and mitigate inflationary pressures from tariffs [6] Geopolitical Context - President Trump is set to meet with President Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, with potential future plans for a visit to Russia [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, maintained its holdings at 964.22 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [8] Market Sentiment - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 6.6%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 93.4% [8] - The probability of maintaining rates in October is 2.4%, with cumulative probabilities for a 25 basis point cut at 37.7% and a 50 basis point cut at 59.9% [8] Technical Analysis - Gold prices showed a rebound, with fluctuations observed throughout the day, indicating a short-term bottoming pattern [10][11] - The market is currently in a consolidation phase, with key resistance levels being tested [11]