美国通胀：“慢热”而非“不热”【国盛宏观熊园团队】

Core Insights - The July CPI in the U.S. was lower than expected at 2.7%, while the core CPI exceeded expectations at 3.1%, leading to a slight increase in the market's expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2][3] - The inflation outlook suggests a gradual increase due to higher tariffs imposed on countries without trade agreements, with Q3 and Q4 inflation expected to rise above 3% [2][13] - The market's expectations for rate cuts have been adjusted upwards, with a nearly 100% probability of a cut in September, primarily due to concerns about a potential recession [1][11] Inflation Data Summary - The U.S. July CPI year-on-year was 2.7%, unchanged from the previous value and below the expected 2.8%. The core CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, above the expected 3.0% and previous 2.9% [1][3] - Month-on-month, the seasonally adjusted CPI was 0.2%, lower than the previous 0.3%, while the core CPI was 0.3%, higher than the previous 0.2% [1][3] - Key components showed a decline in food and energy prices, while core services saw an increase, indicating a shift in inflation dynamics [3][4] Market Reaction - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock markets rose, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones increasing by 1.1%, 1.4%, and 1.1% respectively. The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.29% [5][11] - The implied probability of a rate cut in September increased from approximately 88% to 96%, with the expected number of cuts for the year rising from 2.3 to 2.4 [11][13] Future Outlook - The inflation outlook indicates a "slow burn" rather than a rapid increase, with tariffs expected to gradually impact inflation rates [2][13] - The Federal Reserve's rate cut expectations are influenced by recession concerns, with the likelihood of consecutive cuts being low given the limited number of FOMC meetings remaining this year [2][21]