日本研究报告：解码全球汽车产业变革的底层逻辑与未来趋势

Core Insights - The report highlights that the global automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by electrification and intelligence, with China leading this change [2][3] - It serves as a reference guide for corporate executives to navigate the rapidly changing market and technological landscape [2] Group 1: China's Automotive Market Position - China is the largest automotive market globally, significantly ahead in new energy vehicle penetration, export scale, and industry chain integration [3][4] - The report emphasizes that China's automotive industry is reshaping global market dynamics, with electric vehicles priced 20%-30% lower than their European and American counterparts [5][6] - China controls 60% of global battery production capacity, giving it pricing power in the new energy vehicle supply chain [5] Group 2: Technological Trends and Innovations - The report identifies key technological areas such as power batteries, automotive chips, algorithms, and vehicle-road collaboration that are crucial for investment timing [5][10] - Battery costs have decreased to approximately $100 per kWh and are expected to drop to $60-$70 per kWh by 2030 [7] - The penetration rate of L2+ autonomous driving has exceeded 30% in major markets, with mainstream models expected to achieve L3 capabilities by 2030 [7] Group 3: Global Market Dynamics - The global automotive market is entering a phase of "slowing growth and structural change," with new energy and intelligent trends significantly altering the industry landscape [6][10] - Different regions exhibit varying levels of new energy vehicle penetration, with Europe at 23% and North America at around 10% [7][9] - The report suggests that companies must adapt to regional differences in policies and market conditions to remain competitive [10][12] Group 4: Strategic Recommendations for Companies - Companies are advised to focus on supply chain security, technological iteration, global layout, business model innovation, and cross-industry integration [10][11] - The report stresses the importance of establishing a dual guarantee system for raw material supply through direct procurement and recycling [11] - It recommends careful selection of overseas factory locations, particularly in Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe, to meet local market demands and regulatory requirements [12]