欧元兑美元涨至近两周高位，继续关注1.17关口阻力

Core Viewpoint - The Euro to USD exchange rate has shown volatility influenced by various factors, including U.S. inflation data and political pressures, leading to a recent increase in the Euro's value against the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) data revealed a mixed inflation scenario, with the core CPI rising to 3.1% year-on-year, up from 2.9%, while the overall inflation rate remained steady at 2.7% [3]. - Market participants are focusing on signals of monetary easing, with a 90% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [3][6]. Group 2: Political Influences - Former President Donald Trump publicly criticized Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell for being slow in implementing rate cuts, which heightened market sensitivity to potential policy shifts [3]. - Trump's nominee for the Federal Reserve Board, Stephen Moore, emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence but has not commented on specific policies due to pending Senate approval [3]. Group 3: European Economic Data - The ZEW economic sentiment index for the EU dropped significantly from 36.1 to 25.1, indicating concerns about the economic recovery in Europe, particularly in Germany [4]. - Germany's ZEW index fell sharply from 52.7 to 34.7, well below the market expectation of 39.8, reflecting ongoing economic challenges [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Divergence - The divergence in monetary policy expectations is leading to increased volatility in exchange rates, with the U.S. dollar index declining by 0.44% to 98.06, providing upward support for the Euro against the dollar [5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is at 91%, while the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain rates, with only a 9% chance of a rate cut [6]. Group 5: Technical Analysis - The Euro to USD exchange rate reached a high of 1.1697, nearing the significant resistance level of 1.1700, although upward momentum appears to be stalling [7]. - If the exchange rate falls below the support level of 1.1650, the next key support zone is between the 20-day and 50-day simple moving averages at 1.1626-1.1619 [7]. - A successful breakout above the 1.1700 resistance could target levels of 1.1750, 1.1800, and the yearly high of 1.1829 [8].