10年期日债惊现两年首次“零成交“ 五年期国债拍卖直面全球债市风暴

Core Viewpoint - Japan is set to issue a five-year government bond amid rising concerns over market liquidity and volatility, which overshadow the auction [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Concerns about liquidity in the Japanese government bond market have intensified, with the benchmark 10-year bond recording zero transactions for the first time in over two years [1] - The yield curve for Japanese government bonds has been particularly volatile this year, influenced by both domestic and global market fluctuations [1] - A liquidity measure for Japanese government bonds indicates a significant increase in the deviation of daily yields from fair value, surpassing levels seen during the 2008 global financial crisis [1] Group 2: Auction Expectations - Analysts from Tokai Tokyo Securities express optimism regarding the upcoming five-year bond auction, predicting a potential rebound in prices after an initial drop [1] - Senior rate strategist Miki Den from Sumitomo Mitsui Trust Securities believes the auction is likely to be successful, noting that current yields are higher than those at the last auction [2] - The average bid-to-cover ratio from the last auction was 3.54, slightly below the 12-month average of 3.78, indicating a potential shift in demand dynamics [2] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The upcoming GDP data release is expected to heighten concerns about stagflation, which may put additional pressure on long-term Japanese government bonds [2] - The rise in the German 30-year bond yield to its highest level since 2011, coupled with concerns about fiscal sustainability, is likely to negatively impact the performance of Japanese long-term bonds [2]