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【观天下】当“凯尔特之虎”遭遇美国关税威胁
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-13 04:13

Core Insights - Ireland's economy, once reliant on low GDP, has transformed into a major player in the pharmaceutical sector, becoming the largest exporter of medical products in the EU, with a significant dependency on the US market for exports [1][2][3] Economic Growth and Dependency - Ireland's GDP per capita has surpassed traditional economic powers like France and Germany, earning the nickname "Celtic Tiger" due to its strong growth driven by globalization and an export-oriented economy [1] - In 2024, Ireland's total goods export is projected to reach nearly €224 billion, with medical and pharmaceutical products accounting for €99.9 billion, nearly 45% of total exports [2] - The US is the largest market for Irish exports, with over €72 billion in goods exported, of which €58 billion are pharmaceutical products, representing approximately 60% of total exports to the US [2] Foreign Direct Investment - Ireland has attracted a cumulative foreign direct investment of €1.3 trillion, equivalent to 255% of its GDP, significantly higher than the EU average [2] - US investments account for €897 billion, making up 69% of total foreign direct investment in Ireland, highlighting the critical nature of the US market for Ireland's economy [2] Trade Vulnerability - The Irish economy is highly sensitive to changes in US trade policy, with potential tariffs posing a significant risk to its export-driven model [2][3] - The Irish government and industry express concerns that proposed high tariffs on imported pharmaceuticals could severely impact the economy, with predictions of a 1.5% contraction in economic activity over five years and the loss of 56,000 to 70,000 jobs [3] Market Reactions - In anticipation of potential tariffs, Irish pharmaceutical exports to the US surged in early 2023, with March exports reaching €23.6 billion, a 243.3% increase year-on-year [3] - There are fears that this spike in exports may lead to a sharp decline once tariffs are implemented, resulting in a significant drop in export volumes [3] Economic Fluctuations - Ireland's economy experienced significant fluctuations, with a 1% decline in GDP in Q2 2023, contrasting sharply with a 7.4% growth in Q1 2023, indicating the volatility introduced by external trade pressures [4] - The current geopolitical climate necessitates a reevaluation of Ireland's reliance on the US market, as the country faces challenges in maintaining its growth trajectory amid rising protectionism [4]