美联储或在9月重启降息，但关税通胀风险依然存在

Core Viewpoint - The July inflation data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates stable inflation, primarily due to a significant drop in energy prices, which lowers the barriers for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3]. Inflation Data Summary - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for July increased by 2.7% year-on-year, matching the previous month and falling short of the market expectation of 2.8%. Month-on-month, it rose by 0.2%, consistent with market expectations, but the increase narrowed by 0.1 percentage points compared to June [1]. - Energy prices were a major drag on the CPI, with a year-on-year decline of 1.6% in July, a drop that expanded by 0.8 percentage points from June. Month-on-month, energy prices fell by 1.1%, contrasting with a 0.9% increase in June [1]. Employment Data Summary - Non-farm payrolls added only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below the market expectation of 110,000. The unemployment rate rose from 4.1% to 4.2%. Additionally, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down the non-farm employment figures for May and June, with May's jobs revised from 144,000 to 19,000 and June's from 147,000 to 14,000 [3]. Federal Reserve's Position - Several Federal Reserve officials have indicated a strong likelihood of interest rate cuts due to the cooling labor market. The Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve, Michelle Bowman, expressed support for three rate cuts in 2025 and urged for a rate cut to begin in September [4]. - San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly noted that the evidence of a weakening labor market and the absence of persistent inflation from tariffs suggest that the timing for rate cuts is approaching, potentially requiring more than two cuts this year [5]. Inflation Risks and Economic Outlook - Analysts have expressed skepticism regarding the Treasury Secretary's view on tariffs, noting that service inflation remains stubborn. The core goods inflation year-on-year rose to 1.2% in July, up from negative values in March, with used car prices showing a nearly 5% increase [6]. - Concerns about the lagging effects of tariffs on prices suggest that their impact will become more apparent in the third and fourth quarters, with warnings about potential re-inflation risks [7]. The anticipated slowdown in U.S. GDP growth from 2.6% in 2024 to below 2% in 2025 reflects the broader economic risks associated with prolonged high interest rates and tariff impacts [7].