海通国际：给予中闽能源增持评级，目标价6.05元

Core Viewpoint - The report by Haitong International Securities Group indicates that despite weak wind power performance in Q2, China Minmetals Energy (600163) has strong long-term investment potential due to its quality assets and favorable power supply-demand dynamics in Fujian province, with a target price set at 6.05 yuan and a rating of "Outperform" [1][2]. Investment Highlights - The company maintains an "Outperform" rating, with projected EPS for 2025-2027 at 0.39, 0.42, and 0.45 yuan respectively, excluding committed asset injections [2]. - The estimated valuation for 2025 is set at 15.5x PE, corresponding to the target price of 6.05 yuan [2]. - In Q2 2025, the company achieved a total power generation of 510 million kWh, a year-on-year decrease of 18%, with Fujian wind power contributing 450 million kWh, down 19% year-on-year, primarily due to weak wind resources [2]. - For the first half of 2025, total power generation was 1.4 billion kWh, with Fujian wind power at 1.28 billion kWh, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.6% [2]. Financial Performance - The estimated net profit attributable to the parent company for Q2 2025 is 90 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 31%, while the net profit for the first half of 2025 is projected at 340 million yuan, down 1% year-on-year [3]. - The company anticipates a recovery in Q3 2025 due to recent typhoons, projecting a full-year net profit of 750 million yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.3% [3]. - The current valuation metrics show a PB of 1.4x and a PE of 13x for 2025E, indicating a strong safety margin [3]. Project Developments - The company has received approval for the Changle offshore centralized unified delivery project, with a total investment of 7.3 billion yuan and an expected annual net profit contribution of approximately 50 million yuan [3]. - The Changle B District offshore wind project, with a total investment of 1.18 billion yuan, is expected to contribute around 20 million yuan to annual net profit [3]. - A total of 480,000 kW of fish-solar complementary projects have been filed, with an anticipated annual net profit contribution of about 40 million yuan [3].