证券研究报告|行业周报 2025 年 07 月 23 日 电力及公用事业 行业周报（7.14-7.20）：雅鲁藏布江下游水电工程开工，6 月全国 用电量同比+5.4% | 股票 | 股票 | 投资 | EPS （元） | | PE | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 代码 | 名称 | 评级 | 2025E | 2026E | 2025E | 2026E | | 001289.SZ | 龙源电力 | 增持 | 0.79 | 0.88 | 21.49 | 19.3 | | 600163.SH | 中闽能源 | 增持 | 0.4 | 0.42 | 13.58 | 12.93 | | 600674.SH | 川投能源 | 增持 | 1.05 | 1.13 | 15.45 | 14.35 | | 600795.SH | 国电电力 | 买入 | 0.42 | 0.49 | 11.36 | 9.73 | 资料来源：公司财报，长城证券产业金融研究院 板块市场表现： （1）行业估值：本周（2025.7.18）申万公用事业行业指数 PE（TTM） 为 17.2 倍 ...

证券代码：600163 证券简称：中闽能源 公告编号：2025-026 中闽能源股份有限公司 关于控股股东及其一致行动人权益变动触及 1%刻度 的提示性公告 控股股东的一致行动人福建华兴新兴创业投资有限公司保证向本公司 提供的信息真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息 一致。 重要内容提示： 权益变动方向 比例增加□ 比例减少? 权益变动前合计比例 66.25% 权益变动后合计比例 65.97% 本次变动是否违反已作出的承 是□ 否? 诺、意向、计划 是否触发强制要约收购义务 是□ 否? 一、 信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 ?控股股东/实际控制人及其一致行动人 □其他 5%以上大股东及其一致行动人 投资者及其一致行动人的身份 □合并口径第一大股东及其一致行动人（仅适 用于无控股股东、实际控制人） □其他______________（请注明） 信息披露义务人名称 投资者身份 统一社会信用代码 □ 控股股东/实控人 福建华兴新兴创业投 ? 控股股东/实控人的一致 ? 913500000641347881 资有限公司 行动人 □ ...

一、 信息披露义务人及其一致行动人的基本信息 1.身份类别 | | ☑控股股东/实际控制人及其一致行动人 | | --- | --- | | | □其他 5%以上大股东及其一致行动人 | | 投资者及其一致行动人的身份 | □合并口径第一大股东及其一致行动人（仅适 | | | 用于无控股股东、实际控制人） | | | □其他______________（请注明） | 证券代码：600163 证券简称：中闽能源 公告编号：2025-026 中闽能源股份有限公司 关于控股股东及其一致行动人权益变动触及 1%刻度 的提示性公告 控股股东的一致行动人福建华兴新兴创业投资有限公司保证向本公司 提供的信息真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 本公司董事会及全体董事保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息 一致。 减持公司股份 725,381 股，公司控股股东福建省投资开发集团有限责任公司及其 一致行动人持有公司的股份数量由 1,256,016,435 股减少至 1,255,291,054 股， 占公司总股本的比例减少至 65.97%，权益变动触及《证券期货法律适用意见第 19 号——<上市公司收购管理办法 ...

重要内容提示： 大股东及董监高持股的基本情况 本次减持计划实施前，中闽能源股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）股东福 建华兴新兴创业投资有限公司（以下简称"华兴新兴"）持有公司股份 5,325,381 股，占公司总股本的 0.28%。上述股份来源于公司 2015 年重大资产重组及发行 股份购买资产并募集配套资金事项公司非公开发行股份购买资产取得。华兴新兴 系公司控股股东福建省投资开发集团有限责任公司的一致行动人。 减持计划的实施结果情况 证券代码：600163 证券简称：中闽能源 公告编号：2025-025 中闽能源股份有限公司 关于控股股东的一致行动人减持股份结果公告 本公司董事会、全体董事及相关股东保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 | | 直接持股 5%以上股东 | □是 | √否 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 董事、监事和高级管理人员 | □是 | √否 | | | 其他：/ | | | | 持股数量 | 5,325,381股 | | | | 持股比例 | 0.28% | | | | 当前持股股份来 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [11] Core Insights - The increase in renewable energy consumption responsibility weight is expected to generate an additional demand of approximately 510 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy by 2025 [2][6][19] - The transition of the aluminum electrolysis industry from monitoring to assessment will significantly boost the demand for non-hydropower green certificates, estimated at around 150 million certificates [7][26] - The inclusion of four major energy-consuming industries (steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers) into monitoring is projected to create a potential demand for approximately 800 million non-hydropower green certificates [8][29] Summary by Sections Renewable Energy Consumption Responsibility Weight - The responsibility weight for renewable energy consumption will significantly increase in 2025, with unfulfilled portions not carried over to the next year. The new policy mandates that the responsibility weight must be completed within the year [6][17] - The "Three North" regions have a higher responsibility weight, with provinces like Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Jilin, Heilongjiang, and Qinghai set at 30%, while regions like Shanghai and Guangdong remain below 15% [18] Electrolytic Aluminum Green Power Consumption - The green power consumption ratio for the electrolytic aluminum industry will shift from monitoring to assessment in 2025, leading to a significant increase in demand for non-hydropower green certificates [7][26] - The estimated demand for non-hydropower green certificates from the electrolytic aluminum sector is about 150 million certificates due to the new assessment requirements [26] Expansion of Monitoring to Other Industries - The addition of steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers into the monitoring framework is expected to create a substantial potential demand for green certificates, estimated at around 800 million certificates [8][29] - The projected total demand from these sectors could reach approximately 980 billion kilowatt-hours of new energy, accounting for about 53% of the 2024 new energy volume [34] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand side is expected to expand significantly due to the assessment of the electrolytic aluminum industry and the inclusion of new energy-consuming sectors, while the supply side will see a reduction in the issuance of green certificates due to policy changes [8][34] - The overall market dynamics are anticipated to shift from a surplus supply to a more balanced state, providing long-term support for green certificate prices [8][34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the industry [4] Core Viewpoints - The issuance of renewable energy power consumption responsibility weights for 2025 mandates green electricity consumption in five major industries, which is expected to alleviate renewable energy consumption issues [3][11] - The assessment scope has expanded to include steel, cement, polysilicon, and data centers, enhancing the focus on energy-intensive industries [3][12] - The provincial assessment targets for renewable energy consumption responsibility weights will range from 24.2% to 70% in 2025, with 19 provinces aiming for over 30% [3][15] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The electricity and public utilities index rose by 1.60% during the week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.78 percentage points [5][55] - The report highlights that over half of the listed companies in the electricity and public utilities sector experienced stock price increases [55] Key Industry Insights - The coal price has rebounded to 627 CNY/ton [13] - The inflow and outflow of water at the Three Gorges Dam decreased by 17.86% and 24.19% year-on-year, respectively [31] - The price of silicon materials remained stable, while mainstream silicon wafer prices decreased slightly [39] Investment Recommendations - Focus on the electricity sector due to the high temperatures across the country and the upcoming performance period [3] - Recommended stocks include Huaneng International, Jiantou Energy, Huadian International, and Qingda Environmental Protection, which are expected to have resilient quarterly earnings [3] - Emphasis on undervalued green electricity operators, particularly in Hong Kong and wind power sectors, such as Xintian Green Energy and Longyuan Power [3][8]

Group 1 - Morning Light Biological expects a net profit of 202.0 million to 232.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 102.33% to 132.38% [1] - Northern Rare Earth anticipates a net profit of 900.0 million to 960.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a significant year-on-year growth of 1882.54% to 2014.71% [1] - Youfa Group forecasts a net profit of 277.0 million to 307.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 151.69% to 178.93% [1] Group 2 - Torch Electronics projects a net profit of approximately 247.0 million to 280.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a year-on-year growth of 50.36% to 70.45% [3] - Zhiwei Intelligent expects a net profit of 91.98 million to 112.43 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 62.85% to 99.06% [4] - Youhao Group anticipates a net profit of 12.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 51% [5] Group 3 - Nami Technology expects a net profit of 61.0 million to 73.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 35% to 62% [7] - Xinda Co. forecasts a net profit of 130.0 million to 150.0 million yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a substantial year-on-year growth of 2443.43% to 2834.73% [8] Group 4 - Shaanxi Coal Industry reported a coal production of 14.36 million tons in June, a year-on-year decrease of 5.07% [9] - Huanxu Electronics announced a consolidated revenue of 4.587 billion yuan in June, a year-on-year decline of 1.23% [10] Group 5 - Huadian International successfully issued 2.0 billion yuan in medium-term notes with a maturity of 3+N years and a coupon rate of 1.89% [20] - Zhongmin Energy reported a total power generation of 1.405 billion kilowatt-hours in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 0.89% [20] Group 6 - Huaxia Biotech passed the FDA inspection with zero deficiencies, covering six major systems [21] - Ruikeda's application for convertible bond issuance has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange [22] Group 7 - Dafu Technology plans to invest no more than 100 million yuan in Anhui Yunta [42] - Tongda Co. won a bid for a project valued at 180.3 million yuan from the Southern Power Grid [46]

证券代码：600163 证券简称：中闽能源 公告编号：2025-024 中闽能源股份有限公司 | 经营地区/ 发电类型 | | 发电量(万千瓦时) | | | 上网电量(万千瓦时) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本期 | 上年同期 | 同比 | 本期 | 上年同期 | 同比 | | 福建省 | | | | | | | | 风电 | 128,361.75 | 125,109.90 | 2.60% | 125,032.43 | 121,742.27 | 2.70% | | 黑龙江省 | | | | | | | | 风电 | 8,797.15 | 12,374.10 | -28.91% | 8,533.54 | 12,004.82 | -28.92% | | 生物质发电 | 2,413.92 | 2,839.68 | -14.99% | 2,121.13 | 2,397.91 | -11.54% | | 新疆哈密 | | | | | | | | 光伏发电 | 959.87 | 1,475.54 | -34.95% | 925.96 | 1,4 ...

Group 1 - The company reported a cumulative power generation of 1.405 billion kilowatt-hours as of June 30, 2025, which is a decrease of 0.89% compared to 1.418 billion kilowatt-hours in the same period last year [1] - The cumulative on-grid electricity volume reached 1.366 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a decrease of 0.71% from 1.376 billion kilowatt-hours in the previous year [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the power industry [11] Core Insights - The performance outlook for thermal power remains positive despite a decline in electricity prices and generation in Q2, driven by a significant decrease in coal prices [2][6] - Hydropower generation faces pressure due to high base effects and reduced rainfall, but some companies may achieve stable growth through optimized reservoir management [7][28] - Nuclear power generation continues to grow, but performance may vary by region due to differing impacts from market electricity prices [7][29] - Renewable energy generation (wind and solar) shows steady growth, but performance disparities exist across regions, influenced by local utilization hours [8][33] Summary by Sections Thermal Power - Key factors affecting thermal power profitability include coal prices, electricity prices, and generation volume. In Q2, coal prices decreased significantly, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal price averaging 631.61 yuan/ton, down 216.85 yuan/ton year-on-year [20][21] - The overall electricity price across regions has declined, but northern regions like Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang show relatively strong performance [6][17] - Despite a year-on-year decline in thermal power generation hours and prices, the significant drop in coal prices is expected to stabilize thermal power operations, particularly in northern and eastern regions [26][21] Hydropower - Hydropower generation saw a year-on-year decline of 11.02% in April-May due to high base effects and less rainfall [28][31] - Major hydropower companies with better asset quality may still achieve stable growth through effective water management strategies [28] Nuclear Power - Nuclear power generation increased by 9.57% year-on-year in April-May, supported by a larger installed capacity and fewer maintenance days [29][31] - The impact of market electricity price fluctuations varies, with companies like China Nuclear Power being less affected compared to others [29] Renewable Energy - Wind and solar generation increased by 11.87% and 11.68% year-on-year, respectively, but utilization hours have decreased [33][36] - Regional disparities in performance are evident, with eastern and central provinces showing improved wind utilization hours, while coastal provinces like Guangdong and Fujian experienced significant declines [33][39] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on quality thermal power operators such as Huadian International, Huaneng International, and China Power, as well as major hydropower companies like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9][44] - For renewable energy, companies with balanced national layouts like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are expected to perform well [9][44]