滞胀逼近 “关税困境”折磨美国

Group 1: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The latest report from the U.S. Labor Department indicates that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7% year-on-year in July, maintaining the same increase as in June. The core CPI, excluding volatile food and energy prices, increased by 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June [1] - Analysts suggest that the inflation data, which has been rebounding since April, reflects the increasing impact of the U.S. government's tariff policies on prices [1] Group 2: Tariff Impact on Trade - Following the imposition of tariffs on various countries, the U.S. government's trade-weighted average tariff rate has reached 20.1%, significantly higher than the 2.4% before the current administration took office, marking the highest level in over 110 years [4] - The National Retail Federation (NRF) forecasts a 5.6% decline in U.S. import volumes for the year, indicating a reduction in the variety of goods available in the U.S. market due to tariffs [6] Group 3: Consumer Price Burden - Goldman Sachs reports that consumers have already absorbed about 22% of the tariff costs as of the end of June, with this figure potentially rising to 67% if the tariff policies continue [7] - High inflation levels are expected to persist, with projections indicating that the overall CPI and core CPI will rise to 2.9% and 3.3% year-on-year, respectively, by the end of the year [11] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Employment - The Yale University Budget Lab estimates that the tariffs will lead to a short-term price increase of 1.8%, costing the average American household approximately $2,400 this year. The report highlights significant price hikes in imported goods, particularly footwear and clothing, projected to rise by 39% and 37%, respectively [15] - The U.S. unemployment rate increased to 4.2% in July, with non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, far below expectations. This trend indicates a cooling labor market, with over half of industries reportedly starting layoffs due to rising costs from tariffs [18][20]