美国通胀还来吗？

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of tariffs on inflation in the U.S., suggesting that the duration of tariffs (temporary vs. long-term) is more critical than their mere existence in determining inflationary pressures [4][11]. Tariff Classification - The paper categorizes post-World War II U.S. tariffs into two types: temporary and long-term, revealing that approximately 80% of historical tariff fluctuations are temporary [5][9]. Economic Behavior - If tariffs are perceived as temporary, businesses and consumers may adjust their purchasing behavior and reduce price increase pressures, potentially leading to a more stable economic environment [7][9]. - Conversely, if tariffs are seen as permanent, businesses are likely to incorporate costs into prices, resulting in a one-time price increase followed by stabilization [8][9]. Historical Examples - Historical instances, such as Nixon's 1971 import surcharge and Ford's 1975 oil import fee, demonstrate that temporary tariffs do not significantly impact inflation or economic growth, often coinciding with interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [10][11]. Market Sentiment - The market's primary concern is not whether tariffs are imposed but rather their expected duration, which influences economic cycles and Federal Reserve policies [11][13]. Federal Reserve's Dilemma - The Federal Reserve faces uncertainty in its decision-making, balancing concerns over inflation from tariffs with the need to respond to early signs of economic slowdown [14][15]. Emerging Concerns - Two significant narratives are developing in the market: the impact of data revisions on perceptions of economic stability and concerns regarding attacks on central bank independence, which historically correlate with higher inflation [18][19][20].