野村证券：核心CPI趋温和美联储9月或降息，明年3月前将三连降

Group 1 - Nomura Securities economists indicate that the Federal Reserve may initiate a rate cut cycle in September, starting with a 25 basis point reduction, followed by similar cuts in December and March of the following year [1] - Market analysts have a median expectation of a 25 basis point rate cut within the next three months, but there is still disagreement among institutions regarding the timing of the actual policy adjustments, with some investment banks like Nomura suggesting a delay until the end of the year [1] - Global interest rate probability models show that investors have fully priced in the expectation of a September rate cut, with a second cut anticipated by the end of the year [1] Group 2 - The latest economic data from the U.S. Labor Department supports the expectation of a rate cut, with the July core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising by 0.3%, aligning with market predictions, and showing no significant inflationary pressure [1] - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, with revised employment data indicating that the average number of non-farm jobs added over the past three months is at its lowest level since the pandemic [1] - Following the CPI data release, some market participants have begun to bet on a more aggressive policy adjustment, with expectations for a 50 basis point cut in September gaining traction [1] Group 3 - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset publicly stated that the Federal Reserve should seriously consider implementing rate cuts, as the market closely monitors upcoming economic data and Fed officials' statements to clarify the policy direction [2]