瑞穗：日本央行仍需时间评估关税影响 年底是加息的最早时机

Core Viewpoint - Mizuho's report indicates that the end of the year is considered the earliest opportunity for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to raise interest rates, with a hawkish stance on inflation and economic conditions being highlighted [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - The BOJ's July monetary policy meeting summary released on August 8 presents a hawkish view on inflation, noting that both actual inflation and inflation expectations are rising, alongside increases in corporate profits and wages [1] - Some board members advocate for an early rate hike, emphasizing the need for the BOJ to manage risks and not miss the opportunity to raise rates [1] - However, there are opinions suggesting that the BOJ intends to take time to assess the economic impact of U.S. tariffs, indicating that a decision on policy changes may not be imminent [1][2] Group 2: Assessment Timeline - It is suggested that at least two to three months are needed to evaluate the impact of U.S. tariff policies, which could delay any potential rate hike until December at the earliest [2] - The statement regarding the assessment period and the earliest exit from the current stance implies a lower likelihood of rate hikes in September or October, contrasting with market expectations of a 40% probability for a rate hike in October [2] Group 3: Inflation Focus - Multiple opinions suggest that the BOJ should shift its focus from core inflation to actual inflation, recognizing that actual inflation is becoming increasingly important as core inflation approaches 2% [3] - Despite acknowledging that inflation is running above 2%, there are concerns that focusing too much on actual inflation could hinder the possibility of a rate hike due to expected declines in inflation rates [3] Group 4: U.S. Federal Reserve Context - Mizuho notes that U.S. employment data indicates a softening labor market, which may support the Federal Reserve's move towards rate cuts, with a probability of over 90% for a rate cut in September [4] - Nomura Securities has also adjusted its expectations for the Fed to cut rates in September, citing signs of slowing inflation and initial cracks in the labor market [4]