降息预期回升 沪镍窄幅波动【8月13日SHFE市场收盘评论】

Group 1 - Nickel prices are experiencing a sideways trend, with the main contract down by 0.24% to 122,340 yuan/ton, influenced by a moderate overall inflation in the US and a 95% probability of interest rate cuts in September [1] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with strong pricing sentiment from Philippine mines, while Indonesian primary nickel output remains high, leading to a continued decline in nickel ore prices, although they are still at relatively high levels [1] - Demand from the downstream nickel iron sector is improving, with steel mills reducing losses, which has slightly eased the pressure on raw material pricing [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of nickel products is high, with signs of production slowdown in Indonesian smelters, but the supply remains elevated [2] - Domestic demand for nickel has significantly increased in the first half of the year, yet the supply-demand balance remains in surplus, indicating limited contradictions in nickel's supply and demand [2] - Short-term focus should be on changes in the macroeconomic environment, while medium-term attention should be on the potential tightening of Indonesian nickel ore supply [2]