瑞银：看空美国经济、看空美元、看空美股

Group 1: Economic Outlook - UBS predicts a sharp slowdown in US GDP growth from 2.0% in Q2 to 0.9% in Q4, significantly below the consensus estimate of 1% [2][11] - Indicators such as a decline in private sector working hours and a weaker ISM employment index suggest an inevitable economic slowdown [5][6] - Factors supporting this outlook include pre-tariff demand exhaustion, depletion of excess savings, and rising effective interest rates during debt extensions [11][12] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - UBS forecasts a 1% decrease in interest rates by year-end, contrasting sharply with the market consensus of only a 0.5% reduction [13] - The report highlights that the sensitivity of the economy to short-term rates is unusually low due to a high proportion of fixed-rate debt among households and businesses [16] Group 3: Dollar Outlook - UBS maintains a long-term bearish stance on the dollar, citing a net investment position of -88% of GDP as a condition for a potential correction before a new dollar bull market [3][20] - Despite a recent rebound in the dollar, UBS argues that the fundamental logic for a dollar bear market remains intact [23][24] Group 4: Stock Market Risks - UBS sets a year-end target of 960 points for the MSCI global index, with a 2026 target of 1000 points, while warning of significant downside risks [4][26] - Concerns about valuation and positioning are evident, with nearly all clients inquiring about bubble risks, as UBS identifies six out of seven conditions for a bubble being met [30] - The report notes that approximately 70% of earnings growth is driven by generative AI, but warns that capital expenditure growth among large firms may slow significantly by 2026 [31][33]