美国7月CPI出炉：温和通胀+95%降息概率，美联储降息窗口打开？

Core Insights - The core result of the July CPI data shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, aligning with market expectations, while the year-on-year increase is 2.7%, slightly below the anticipated 2.8% [1] - The core CPI has risen to 3.1% year-on-year, marking the highest level since February, primarily driven by a broad increase in service prices [1][3] Inflation Details - Specific sectors such as medical services, airfare, entertainment, household goods, and used cars have all seen price increases, with airfare experiencing a notable 4% rise in July, the largest monthly increase in three years [3] - Housing-related costs, including owners' equivalent rent and rent index, increased by 0.3%, while hotel accommodation prices decreased by 1% [3] - The "super core CPI," which excludes housing prices, rose by 0.55% month-on-month and 3.59% year-on-year, both reaching new highs since February, driven by transportation and medical service price increases [3] Market Reactions - The market interpreted the CPI report as a signal for potential interest rate cuts in September, with analysts suggesting that the overall inflation remains manageable despite some pressures in specific sectors [5] - Following the CPI release, U.S. stock futures surged, with the Nasdaq futures up 0.41%, S&P 500 futures up 0.36%, and Dow futures up 0.44% [7] - The probability of a rate cut in September has risen to 95%, indicating strong market confidence in this outcome [7] Future Considerations - The focus will be on whether inflation can remain moderate and if the job market continues to cool, as these factors will influence the Federal Reserve's future actions [7]