Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-13 09:07Group 1 - The overall advertising market in mainland China is slightly weaker than expected, with online advertising projected to grow approximately 12% year-on-year in Q2, which is above overall consumption growth but below prior expert expectations due to trade uncertainties affecting merchant confidence in ad spending [1] - The growth rate is expected to further slow to about 8% in Q3, influenced by high base effects, e-commerce subsidies affecting ad budget allocation, and weak advertising sentiment in the fast-moving consumer goods and automotive sectors [1] - Key bright spots in the industry include short dramas, mini-games, local services, fintech, learning hardware, and 3C electronics, while automotive, e-commerce, and application game advertising are relatively weak [1] Group 2 - AI technology is beginning to show advertising benefits, enhancing the entire advertising cycle from strategy formulation to traffic acquisition and post-evaluation, with average click-through and conversion rates improving by 5% to 15%, driving mid-single-digit annual price increases [1] - The advertising ecosystem is becoming more closed-loop, with platforms like WeChat Mini Stores, Douyin, Kuaishou, and Bilibili offering closed-loop transaction ad prices approximately 1.5 times higher than external ads, which helps in creating more refined user profiles and long-term growth [2] - Tencent's search business continues to grow in daily active users, with WeChat search generating new ad revenue and user intent insights, while the development of mini-programs and mini-stores promotes a closed-loop ecosystem [2] Group 3 - UBS forecasts a 10.2% year-on-year increase in China's advertising market this year, with online advertising expected to rise by 10.7% [2] - Tencent's advertising is projected to grow by 17% year-on-year, while Alibaba and ByteDance are estimated to see increases of 6.3% and 14.4% respectively, and Kuaishou is expected to grow by 14%, with Bilibili projected to increase by 18.2% [2]