“唱反调者”坚称：美联储今年仍有按兵不动的理由！

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the likelihood of a rate cut in September, indicating that current economic performance does not show signs of restrictive policies dragging down growth [2] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The July non-farm payroll data fell short of expectations, with significant downward revisions for May and June, indicating weaker labor demand than previously thought [2] - The unemployment rate slightly increased in July, leading the forward rate market to fully absorb expectations for a September rate cut [2] - Analysts are questioning the prediction that the federal funds rate will remain unchanged for the rest of the year, with the outcome largely dependent on upcoming economic data releases [2][3] Group 2: Labor Market Dynamics - Concerns about restrictive immigration policies are prevalent among analysts, as the U.S. economy relies heavily on foreign labor, and recent immigration restrictions have led to a decrease in the labor supply [3] - The ratio of job vacancies to unemployed individuals has returned to pre-pandemic levels, suggesting that the labor market is not excessively loose [3] - The participation rate of foreign-born workers has significantly declined since March, indicating a tightening labor supply [4] Group 3: Future Projections - Capital Economics forecasts a slight increase in the unemployment rate to 4.3% by year-end, which may justify the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates [5] - Analysts from Bank of America believe that the current economic situation could be characterized as either recession or stagflation, with a notable decline in labor force due to immigration restrictions [5] - The upcoming non-farm payroll report on September 5 and comments from the Federal Reserve at the Jackson Hole conference will be critical in shaping future rate decisions [7]