贵州茅台(600519)：经营触底相对稳健

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a steady revenue growth in Q2 2025, with total revenue reaching 39.65 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 7.26%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 18.56 billion yuan, up by 5.25% [1][2] Revenue Summary - Q2 2025 revenue from Moutai liquor increased by 11.0%, while series liquor revenue declined by 6.5%. Moutai liquor's share of total liquor revenue rose by 2.6 percentage points to 82.6% [3] - For H1 2025, total revenue was 91.09 billion yuan, marking a 9.16% increase year-on-year [1] Profit Summary - The company's gross profit margin in Q2 2025 was 90.4%, a decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to lower profitability of kilogram packages and increased discounts on series liquor products [4] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 46.8%, down by 0.89 percentage points year-on-year [4] Cash Flow and Collection Quality - The company's revenue plus changes in contract liabilities decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, and cash sales fell by 4.6%, indicating a slower growth rate compared to revenue [5] - The net cash flow from operating activities decreased by 84.3% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced deposits from the financial company and increased statutory reserves [5] Investment Outlook - The company is expected to achieve its annual targets, with ongoing product development and improved channel confidence anticipated in H2 2025 [7] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected at 190.13 billion yuan, 205.04 billion yuan, and 218.31 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 93.94 billion yuan, 102.03 billion yuan, and 109.07 billion yuan [7] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 17, and 16 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [6][7]