KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519) Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-13 10:30Core Viewpoint - Guizhou Moutai reported stable revenue growth in Q2 2025 despite external challenges, showcasing brand resilience and strategic adaptability in a fluctuating market environment [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, total revenue reached 91.094 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.16%, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 45.403 billion yuan, up 8.89% [1]. - Q2 2025 revenue was 39.65 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.26% year-on-year growth, while net profit for the same period was 18.555 billion yuan, increasing by 5.25% [1]. - Revenue from Moutai liquor in Q2 was 32.032 billion yuan, up 10.99%, while series liquor revenue declined by 6.53% to 6.740 billion yuan [1]. Channel and Product Analysis - Direct sales and wholesale channels generated revenues of 16.789 billion yuan and 21.983 billion yuan in Q2, representing year-on-year increases of 16.52% and 1.48%, respectively [1]. - The "i Moutai" digital platform recorded a revenue of 4.89 billion yuan in Q2, showing a slight decline of 0.35% [1]. Margin and Cost Structure - The gross margin for Q2 was 90.42%, a slight decrease of 0.26 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The net profit margin for Q2 was 49.53%, down 1.07 percentage points, primarily due to the impact of gross margin and sales expense ratio [2]. Cash Flow and Liabilities - Cash receipts from sales in Q2 totaled 38.943 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.64% year-on-year, while net cash flow from operating activities was 4.31 billion yuan, down 84.3% [2]. - As of the end of Q2, contract liabilities stood at 5.507 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.28 billion yuan from the end of Q1, indicating proactive measures to alleviate cash pressure on distributors [2]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company adjusted its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 94.010 billion yuan, 99.030 billion yuan, and 104.671 billion yuan, reflecting downward revisions of 0.5%, 3.9%, and 6.4%, respectively [3]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 19, 18, and 17 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [3].