上证指数创近四年新高，“旗手”大涨，业内人士直言牛市已至，4000点可期？

Market Performance - On August 13, the A-share market indices continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the previous high of 3674.4 points set on October 8, 2024, reaching a maximum of 3688.63 points, the highest since December 2021 [1][4] - By the close of trading, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index reported gains of 0.48%, 1.76%, and 3.62%, respectively [1] - Year-to-date, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index have accumulated gains of 9.9%, 10.91%, and 16.57% [1] Market Drivers - The recent market rally is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a revaluation of A-shares, with the former being a direct factor for the rise [2] - A significant shift of household deposits into the stock market has facilitated capital inflow into A-shares, alongside a continuous decline in risk-free interest rates [2] Investor Sentiment - The margin financing balance has risen rapidly, exceeding 2 trillion yuan for the first time in ten years, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [3] - The total market capitalization has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, despite the Shanghai Composite Index being only in the 3600s, primarily due to a significant increase in the number of new listings over the past decade [3] Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that a true bull market will only be confirmed if the market effectively breaks through the resistance levels of 3674 and 3731 points [2][4] - If the index surpasses the 3731.69 points level, a return to 4000 points for A-shares is considered a matter of time, reflecting an increase in valuation [2][4]