万腾平台：美国7月CPI创半年新高，美联储9月降息预期能否兑现？

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) data shows inflation remains manageable, which supports market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][3][4] - The July CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month, while the core CPI rose by 3.1% year-on-year and 0.3% month-on-month, marking the largest month-on-month increase in six months [1][3] - Market expectations for the Federal Reserve's September monetary policy shifted significantly, with a 93.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut, while the likelihood of maintaining rates was only 6.6% [3] Group 2 - The July CPI data suggests that inflation is still within a controllable range, reinforcing market bets on a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [4] - Investors are advised to monitor statements from Federal Reserve officials and subsequent economic data to assess whether the rate cut magnitude and pace align with current market expectations [4] - The high expectations for a rate cut have already influenced the pricing in the dollar, stock market, and fixed income markets, potentially leading to a weaker dollar and a continued upward trend in risk assets [3]