JTGROUP(SH:601609) Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-08-13 10:59Investment Highlights - Company is the largest producer of copper and copper alloy materials globally, with a complete industrial chain from smelting to deep processing [1] - By 2024, the copper processing capacity across eight production bases in Ningbo, Jiangsu, Guangdong, and Vietnam is expected to reach 2.2 million tons, with a product output of 1.916 million tons, leading the industry [1] - High-end copper product demand is rapidly increasing, providing new opportunities for the company, which is expected to enhance its market share as an innovative leader in copper processing [1] Market Trends - Structural growth in copper demand is driven by trends in industrial and consumer sectors, including AI data centers, electric vehicles, humanoid robots, and low-altitude economy, leading to a shift towards high-end, high-value-added copper products [1] - The low-price competition in the copper processing industry is ending, and innovative leading enterprises with scale, technology, and product advantages will benefit from the industry's consolidation [1] Competitive Advantages - The company leverages three main advantages: high-end, internationalization, and green initiatives, rapidly capturing downstream copper demand growth [2] - It supplies high-end copper-based products to renowned brands such as Apple, Huichuan Technology, Geely Automobile, and Samsung [2] - The company is one of the few in the global copper industry to offer a "one-stop full closed-loop low-carbon recycling materials" solution, providing 100% recycled copper materials [2] Profitability Outlook - The impact of copper price fluctuations on the company's gross profit is expected to weaken, with the processing fee rate for copper and copper alloy products projected to rise to 7.7% by 2024 [2] - The company employs a pricing model based on "raw material price + processing fee," which allows for indirect influence from copper prices on processing fees [2] - The company's hedging system further mitigates risks associated with copper price volatility, reducing the overall impact on costs and gross profit [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at 134.68 billion yuan, 143.46 billion yuan, and 153.59 billion yuan, respectively [3] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 711 million yuan, 999 million yuan, and 1.186 billion yuan for the same period, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 53.92%, 40.52%, and 18.65% [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.48 yuan, 0.67 yuan, and 0.80 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 17.9x, 12.7x, and 10.7x [3]