刘郁：债牛，虽迟但到

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the pressure of the stock market on the bond market may be nearing its end, as the recent stock market rally is not supported by fundamental data improvements but rather by confidence in state intervention [2][26] - The stock market's upward movement has two main effects on the bond market: the "water extraction effect" which reduces liquidity in the bond market, and the enhancement of market risk appetite, which can suppress bond market sentiment [20][29] - The recent stock market rally has led to a significant increase in financing balances, suggesting a peak in equity speculation sentiment, with potential for a market correction in the coming weeks [26][30] Group 2 - There is an expectation that interest rate cuts may gain traction, driven by weak demand reflected in low PPI figures and anticipated disappointing credit data [3][29] - The bond market is entering a recovery phase, with a notable rebound in credit bonds and short-duration government bonds, while the sentiment in the bond market is gradually improving [7][13] - The upcoming weeks are critical for the bond market, with a focus on financial data releases and the evolution of Sino-US relations, which could impact market dynamics [16][30] Group 3 - The government bond issuance schedule is slowing down, with planned issuance significantly reduced compared to the previous week, indicating a potential shift in supply dynamics [62] - The issuance of local government bonds has also seen a decrease, with a notable increase in net issuance, reflecting ongoing fiscal strategies [65][66] - The overall bond market is expected to experience a "bond bull" phase in August and September, suggesting a favorable environment for extending portfolio durations [5][30]