IEA月报：明年全球石油供应或将严重过剩，刷新历史纪录

Group 1 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a record oversupply in the global oil market next year due to slowing demand growth and surging supply, which will exert continuous pressure on oil prices and pose significant challenges for oil-producing countries [1] - Global oil inventories reached a 46-month high in June, driven by increased production from OPEC+ and rising output from the Americas [1][5] - The IEA warns that the market needs to make adjustments to restore balance, as demand growth has slowed to less than half of 2023 levels for the next two years [1][4] Group 2 - Global oil consumption is expected to grow by only 680,000 barrels per day this year, marking the weakest increase since 2019, with disappointing demand from countries like India and Brazil [4] - The IEA has raised its forecast for non-OPEC+ supply growth by 100,000 barrels per day to 1 million barrels per day by 2026, primarily driven by countries in the Americas [5] - OPEC+ is facing pressure to regain market share, with Saudi Arabia pushing for a return to previously suspended production levels, although future actions remain uncertain [5][6]