连平：美联储九月会降息吗？其影响几何？

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has shifted from a hawkish to a dovish stance, with expectations of potential interest rate cuts as early as September 2024 due to changing economic conditions [2][3][6] - Economic indicators show signs of weakening, with the manufacturing PMI dropping from 52.9 in June to 49.8 in July, and non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs in July, significantly below expectations [6][7] - The influence of tariffs on inflation has been relatively mild, with 64% of tariff costs absorbed by U.S. companies, and inflation levels remaining within a manageable range for the Fed [7][8] Group 2 - Internal pressures from former President Trump have increased, advocating for lower interest rates to stimulate the economy and improve market conditions ahead of the 2026 midterm elections [8][9] - The balance of power within the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has shifted towards dovish members, influenced by both external pressures and internal economic assessments [8][9] - Despite the shift towards dovishness, uncertainties remain regarding the voting behavior of FOMC members in the upcoming meetings, with some members still holding a hawkish view [9][10] Group 3 - The second phase of interest rate cuts is expected to be preventive in nature, with a potential initial cut of 25 basis points, reflecting a cautious approach to monetary policy [10][17] - The Fed may implement 2-3 rate cuts within the year, totaling 50-75 basis points, as part of a preventive strategy rather than a response to a severe economic downturn [20][21] - The anticipated rate cuts could provide new monetary policy space for China, potentially leading to a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates domestically [22][23] Group 4 - The resumption of rate cuts by the Fed is likely to have a positive impact on global financial markets, with expectations of capital flows returning to emerging markets, including China [21][22] - The Chinese yuan may experience upward pressure against the dollar, supported by the Fed's dovish stance and easing trade tensions [22][23] - Increased interest in Chinese assets is expected as global investors seek better returns, potentially leading to a reallocation of capital towards undervalued and high-growth potential assets in China [23]