Bullish IPO，估值为何不到Coinbase的10%？

Group 1 - Bullish plans to raise approximately $990 million through its IPO, becoming the second cryptocurrency exchange to list on the New York Stock Exchange after Coinbase [1][3] - The strong backing from top investors like Peter Thiel, Alan Howard, and SoftBank, along with the acquisition of CoinDesk, positions Bullish favorably in the market [2][3][23] - The IPO demand for Bullish has increased significantly, prompting the company to raise its fundraising target from $629 million to $990 million [3] Group 2 - Bullish has a complex history with EOS, having received initial funding from Block.one, which raised $4.2 billion through an ICO in 2018 [10][18] - The relationship between Bullish and EOS is marked by a sense of betrayal, as Block.one shifted focus to Bullish while leaving EOS behind [15][17] - Despite the initial promise of EOS, the project faced significant challenges, leading to a decline in community support and resources [11][12][14] Group 3 - Bullish's financial performance shows a reliance on trading revenue, with spot trading income accounting for 70% to 80% of total revenue [26] - In Q1 2025, Bullish reported a net loss of $349 million, primarily due to the decline in the fair value of its cryptocurrency holdings [27] - Comparatively, Bullish's revenue and profitability lag behind competitors like Coinbase and Kraken, with Coinbase's revenue consistently exceeding Bullish's by over 20 times since 2022 [31] Group 4 - Bullish's trading volume reached $79.9 billion in Q1 2025, slightly surpassing Coinbase, but its revenue remains lower due to a strategy of reducing trading spreads [33][35] - The company aims to expand its product offerings, particularly in derivatives, to meet the needs of institutional clients and drive growth [39] - Bullish's valuation of $4.8 billion appears conservative given its substantial asset base, including 24,000 bitcoins valued at approximately $2.8 billion [43][44] Group 5 - The IPO strategy includes a low float of shares, with less than 15% available for trading, which may create a scarcity effect and potential volatility post-lockup [47][48] - Bullish's previous attempt to go public in 2021 was thwarted by regulatory uncertainties and market volatility, but the current market conditions appear more favorable [50][51] - The combination of a lower valuation, tight share circulation, and favorable market timing may enhance the potential for significant value appreciation for Bullish [52]