追踪|奶粉终端价格波动背后：国产恢复价盘，进口控货控渠

Core Viewpoint - Recent reports indicate a price increase in infant formula products from brands such as Aptamil, Friso, Wyeth, Beingmate, and a2, primarily influenced by promotional activities on platforms and the recovery of domestic milk powder prices after a prolonged price war [1][3][5]. Price Fluctuations - Consumer feedback on social media highlighted price increases for several milk powder brands, although investigations revealed that price changes were largely due to promotional activities rather than consistent price hikes [3][4]. - Specific brands like Friso showed significant price variability, with prices ranging from 298 yuan to 356 yuan per can over the past six months, indicating a price difference of 58 yuan per can [3]. Market Dynamics - Domestic milk powder brands are recovering from a price war that lasted four years, with current average prices still lower than those in 2019, while foreign brands are maintaining strict control over pricing and distribution [5][6]. - The demand for ultra-premium milk powder, particularly those containing HMO and A2 protein, is increasing, leading foreign brands to raise prices to maintain a high-end image [5][7]. International Influences - The rise in prices for foreign milk powder is also attributed to increased costs of international bulk powder raw materials, with recent auction results showing price increases for whole and skim milk powder from New Zealand [6]. - Factors such as high European milk prices and inflation are contributing to the rising costs of raw milk, impacting the pricing strategies of foreign brands [6]. Competitive Landscape - Foreign companies like Danone and FrieslandCampina are leveraging high-end strategies to dominate the ultra-premium milk powder market in China, with FrieslandCampina reporting a significant revenue increase driven by its premium product lines [7]. - The growth of online sales channels has been a key driver for Danone's brands, with a notable increase in sales attributed to the demand for specialized nutrition products [7]. E-commerce and Future Trends - The development of cross-border e-commerce is providing favorable conditions for foreign dairy companies, with policy adjustments since 2024 aimed at reducing import barriers and enhancing consumer access to high-end products [8]. - Industry experts suggest that companies should focus on high-end product development, market segmentation, and optimizing distribution channels to enhance brand loyalty and competitiveness in the long term [8].