期货看“五”评 | 鸡蛋：旺季与高供应的对决

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the current egg market is dominated by oversupply, leading to weaker-than-expected price performance during the traditional peak season [4][5][12] - Historical data indicates that the average seasonal price increase for eggs from June to September is 1.8 yuan/kg, with a median of 1.6 yuan/kg, but this year the price increase has been significantly lower due to persistent oversupply [4][5] - As of the end of July, the number of laying hens reached 1.356 billion, the highest for this period historically, contributing to the current oversupply situation [5][12] Group 2 - The supply side is expected to continue dominating price fluctuations in the future, with the current market conditions characterized by excess supply and low inventory strategies from downstream players [8][12] - The overlap of high supply and peak demand has led to suppressed short-term demand, with potential for a sudden increase in demand as seasonal factors like school openings and the Mid-Autumn Festival approach [11][12] - The market is experiencing significant trading volume, with total positions reaching a historical high of 710,000 contracts, indicating a potential for a rebound in demand that could exceed expectations [11][12]