每日投行/机构观点梳理（2025-08-13）

Group 1 - BlackRock anticipates the Federal Reserve will initiate interest rate cuts in September, with a reasonable basis for a 50 basis point reduction [1] - Barclays suggests that Stephen Milan could be a dark horse candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, given his close ties to Trump and potential for indefinite tenure if confirmed [1] - Nomura forecasts that the Federal Reserve may begin a rate-cutting cycle in September, with subsequent cuts in December and March of the following year [2] Group 2 - ING analysts believe that even if inflation exceeds expectations, any gains in the dollar may be temporary, as labor market data is deemed more influential [3] - CICC reports that the core CPI in the U.S. rebounded to 3.1%, indicating a structural upward trend in inflation, which may increase internal divisions within the Federal Reserve [4] - CICC also highlights that the global leading large models are expected to enter a period of intensive releases, particularly with the anticipated launch of GPT-5 [5] Group 3 - Huatai Securities maintains its prediction of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve, citing moderate inflation transmission from tariffs [6] - CITIC Securities expects the Federal Reserve to implement three consecutive rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, due to stable service inflation prospects [7] - CITIC Securities also projects a 2.5% positive growth in China's exports in the second half of the year, driven by trends in corporate overseas expansion and technological advancements [8]