瑞银示警：美股要跌！现在就是标普年内高点，年底看6100点

Core Viewpoint - UBS has raised its S&P 500 index targets for the end of 2025 from 5500 to 6100 and for the end of 2026 from 6100 to 6800, reflecting better-than-expected health of the U.S. economy and corporate sector [1] Group 1: Economic Outlook - UBS indicates that the worst-case scenario regarding tariffs has not materialized, and confidence in fiscal support along with a weaker dollar has alleviated profit pressures [1] - The combination of U.S. economic growth and inflation may worsen, leading to reduced profit growth expectations and increased market volatility [1] - UBS expects a short-term market decline, potentially remaining below current levels until the end of 2025, followed by a significant rebound in the second half of 2026 [1] Group 2: Upside Risks - Surprises in earnings from technology and related companies could push the S&P 500 index to 7200 [2] - Companies affected by tariffs may maintain profit margins despite increased tariffs [2] - The impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation may be less than UBS currently anticipates [2] - Consumer spending continues despite a decline in real disposable income [2] - U.S. capital expenditures and industrial production may rebound due to domestic production repatriation, foreign direct investment, and new technology applications [2] - The Federal Reserve may adopt more accommodative policies in response to tariffs than UBS expects [2] - A weaker dollar and stronger global economic growth could exceed UBS's current expectations [2] Group 3: Downside Risks - Increased tariffs could trigger retaliatory tariffs [3] - Companies that previously hoarded labor may begin large-scale layoffs, harming consumer income and spending as excess savings deplete [3] - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts may be less than expected, negatively impacting market sentiment [3] - Rising import costs could lead to a significant decline in company profit margins from high levels [3] - Confidence in the positive growth impacts of the Inflation Reduction Act, industrial repatriation, and increased direct investment may diminish [3]