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加息近在咫尺?日本央行被要求放弃模糊通胀指标、制定清晰加息路径
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen·2025-08-13 14:21

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is experiencing internal disagreements regarding its monetary policy communication strategy, with some members advocating for a shift away from the ambiguous "potential inflation" metric towards a more hawkish stance [1][2] - The concept of "potential inflation" has been criticized for its lack of a unified statistical method, especially as the core consumer price index has exceeded the BOJ's 2% target for over three years, reaching 3.3% in June, driven by an 8.2% surge in food costs [1][2] - Some BOJ policymakers are concerned about the formation of a "second-round inflation effect," where inflation expectations become entrenched in corporate pricing behavior and public sentiment, prompting calls for a focus on actual price trends and inflation expectations [2][3] Group 2 - The BOJ ended a decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, but the timing for the next rate hike has become complex due to external economic pressures [3] - Recent trade agreements with the U.S. have improved the BOJ's economic outlook, leading some members to call for adjustments to the dovish communication style, indicating a heightened awareness of inflationary pressures [3] - Observers suggest that the BOJ may phase out the "potential inflation" concept in its communications as it prepares for a possible rate hike as early as October [3]