德国车企比惨，巨头加速关厂、裁员

Core Viewpoint - The German automotive industry, represented by the "Big Three" (Mercedes-Benz, Volkswagen, and BMW), is facing significant challenges due to tariffs and changing market conditions, leading to substantial profit declines and operational adjustments [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - Mercedes-Benz reported a net profit drop of over 50% year-on-year for the first half of the year, with the CEO stating that the current situation is more challenging than ever [1]. - Volkswagen's after-tax profit decreased by 38.3% year-on-year, and the company has revised its full-year performance expectations downward three times within six months [1]. - BMW, while less affected, still saw a 29% year-on-year decline in after-tax net profit [1]. Tariff Impact - The German automotive sector is projected to lose approximately €10 billion in cash flow this year due to U.S. tariff policies [1]. - Despite a recent trade agreement reducing EU tariffs on U.S. imports to 15%, the current U.S. tariff on European cars remains at 27.5% [2][3]. - The 15% tariff is not considered a fatal blow to the German automotive industry, as luxury vehicles, which dominate exports to the U.S., have higher profit margins [3]. Company-Specific Challenges - Audi and Porsche are facing the most pressure due to their lack of U.S. manufacturing facilities, with Audi lowering its revenue expectations and profit margins [5]. - Porsche incurred an additional €400 million in costs due to tariffs, resulting in a 66.6% drop in net profit [5]. - BMW has the highest level of localization in the U.S. among the German automakers, which has helped it avoid significant revenue adjustments [5]. Strategic Responses - In response to tariffs, many German automakers are planning to increase investments in U.S. manufacturing and expand production lines [7]. - However, the shift to U.S. production comes with increased costs due to tariffs on imported components, which could raise overall manufacturing expenses significantly [8]. - The transition to U.S. production may also lead to job cuts in Germany, with companies like Audi and Volkswagen announcing significant layoffs [9]. Long-term Implications - The ongoing tariff situation may hinder the electric vehicle transition for German automakers, as they may need to focus on traditional fuel vehicles to maintain competitiveness in the U.S. market [10]. - The pressure to adapt to U.S. market demands could slow down the pace of innovation in electric vehicle development for German companies [10].