Micron Eyes High-Teen DRAM Demand Growth: Is It Sustainable?

Core Insights - Micron Technology, Inc. forecasts a high-teen percentage growth in industry DRAM bit demand by 2025, primarily driven by the increasing demand for AI applications [1][8] - The company's DRAM revenues surged 51% year over year and 15% sequentially to $7.1 billion, accounting for 76% of total sales in Q3 of fiscal 2025 [1][8] - The growth in DRAM revenues is largely attributed to record sales in the data center market and the accelerating adoption of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) [1][2] Industry Trends - The adoption of AI servers is significantly reshaping the DRAM market, as these servers require more memory than traditional servers, leading to increased demand for high-capacity DIMMs and low-power server DRAM [2] - Micron is well-positioned to leverage this trend due to its leadership in DRAM technology and a strong product roadmap, including HBM4, expected to enter volume production in 2026 [2] Supply Dynamics - Tight supply conditions are contributing to a positive outlook for Micron's DRAM products, with the company planning to limit non-HBM DRAM bit supply growth below industry demand to maintain pricing discipline and profitability [3][8] Financial Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts that Micron's DRAM revenues will increase approximately 59% year over year to $27.95 billion in fiscal 2025 [4] - The company's shares have increased around 51.8% year to date, outperforming the Zacks Computer – Integrated Systems industry's gain of 27.4% [7] Competitive Landscape - While there are no direct U.S. stock exchange-listed competitors for Micron in the memory chip sector, Intel and Broadcom play significant roles in the HBM supply chain and AI hardware ecosystem [5][6] - Intel is developing AI accelerators that require high-performance memory, while Broadcom designs custom chips for AI infrastructure that often include integrated HBM, potentially impacting Micron's supply allocation [6] Valuation Metrics - Micron trades at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 3, which is lower than the industry's average of 3.72 [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Micron's fiscal 2025 and 2026 earnings suggests a year-over-year increase of approximately 497.7% and 57.9%, respectively, with upward revisions in estimates over the past 60 days [11]