加息近在咫尺？日本央行被要求放弃模糊通胀指标、清晰加息路径

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is experiencing internal divisions regarding its monetary policy communication strategy, with some members advocating for a shift away from the ambiguous "potential inflation" metric towards a more hawkish stance, potentially paving the way for an interest rate hike in October [1][2]. Group 1: Internal Disagreements - Some BOJ policymakers are concerned that "second-round inflation effects" are forming, suggesting that inflation may become entrenched in corporate pricing behavior and public expectations [2]. - There is a call among committee members to shift the focus of communication from "potential inflation" to actual price trends, output gaps, and inflation expectations [2]. - Members such as Naoki Tamura, Haruka Takada, and Junko Oda emphasize that rising food prices could lead to broader and more persistent inflation risks, although there is no consensus on changing the communication strategy [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook and Rate Hike Potential - The BOJ ended a decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy last year and raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% in January, but the timing for the next rate hike has become complex due to external economic pressures [3]. - Following a trade agreement with the U.S. in July, the BOJ's pessimistic view on economic prospects has eased, leading some members to call for adjustments to the dovish communication approach [3]. - Observers suggest that the BOJ may gradually eliminate the "potential inflation" concept from its communications in preparation for a possible rate hike as early as October [3].