数据出炉，新房市场还在收缩，房价短期内上涨无望？

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a significant decline in new home sales, with a notable year-on-year decrease in sales figures for major developers, indicating a contraction in the market overall [3][6]. Market Performance - In the first seven months of 2025, the total sales amount for the top 100 real estate companies reached 20,730.1 billion, reflecting a 13.3% year-on-year decline, which is an increase in the decline rate by 1.5 percentage points compared to the first half of the year [3]. - Only five companies achieved sales exceeding 1 billion in the first seven months of 2025, a decrease from ten companies in 2023 and six in 2024, highlighting a shrinking new home market [3][6]. Market Trends - The proportion of new home sales in Chengdu has dropped from 48.7% in 2022 to 39.8% in 2023, with the share of second-hand homes rising to 60.2%, indicating a shift towards a stock market [5][6]. - The trend of increasing second-hand home sales is expected to continue, as the market transitions into a stock era where the focus shifts from new home development to the trading and operation of existing properties [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The current market environment shows a general decline in both new and second-hand home prices, with the adjustment period still ongoing [10]. - The transition from an incremental to a stock market phase is characterized by significant price adjustments, where the value of properties will vary greatly based on their quality and marketability [9][10].