美联储降息预期升温，华尔街对大幅降息的押注升温

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that there is a divergence among Wall Street institutions regarding whether the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September and by how much, with some expecting a significant cut of 50 basis points [1][2] - Recent data shows a rise in short-term U.S. Treasury yields and increased trading activity in SOFR options, indicating that traders are betting on a rate cut due to a moderate CPI inflation report [1][2][3] - Some officials and institutions, including U.S. Treasury Secretary and BlackRock's Chief Investment Officer, have expressed support for a potential 50 basis point cut, reinforcing market expectations [2] Group 2 - Despite the strong market bets on a rate cut, there are concerns regarding core inflation, which has shown significant increases, making the Federal Reserve cautious [4] - The market is awaiting additional inflation and employment data before making definitive conclusions about a rate cut, with some economists suggesting that the decision is not guaranteed [4][5] - A survey by JPMorgan indicates a reduction in bullish positions on U.S. Treasuries, with a shift from a bullish to a neutral stance among investors, reflecting caution ahead of upcoming data releases [5]