终端价格波动 奶粉市场进入深度调整期

Core Insights - Recent reports indicate a price increase in certain infant formula brands such as Aptamil, Friso, Wyeth, Beingmate, and a2, primarily influenced by promotional activities on platforms [1][3] - Domestic milk powder brands are recovering from a price war over the past four years, while foreign brands are experiencing price increases due to strict control over supply and pricing [1][5] Price Trends - Online channels show significant price fluctuations for premium brands due to promotional activities, with Friso's price ranging from 298 yuan to 356 yuan per can, a difference of 58 yuan [4] - Offline channels, however, reveal stable prices for domestic brands, with promotions making some products cheaper than online prices [4][5] Market Dynamics - The price fluctuations observed are not directly linked to the recent childcare subsidy policy, as domestic brands are gradually recovering from previous price wars [5] - Foreign brands are maintaining higher prices through strict control over supply and have introduced new products at elevated prices [5][6] Raw Material Costs - The increase in prices for foreign milk powder is also attributed to rising costs of international bulk powder raw materials, with New Zealand's whole and skim milk powder prices increasing by 2.1% and 0.4% respectively [6] Competitive Landscape - The ultra-premium market is dominated by foreign companies like Danone and FrieslandCampina, with FrieslandCampina's market share leading among international brands [7] - Danone's growth is driven by a rapid increase in online sales, particularly for its specialized nutrition products [7] E-commerce Impact - The development of cross-border e-commerce has provided favorable conditions for foreign dairy companies, with simplified import processes enhancing consumer access to high-end products [8] - The ultra-premium milk powder market is projected to grow by 4.2% in 2024, becoming a key growth driver for the industry [8] Strategic Directions - Industry experts suggest that dairy companies should focus on three main areas: enhancing high-end product development, strengthening niche market offerings, and optimizing channel strategies [8] - The future competition will shift from product sales to providing comprehensive nutritional solutions throughout the consumer lifecycle [8]