奶粉终端价格波动背后：国产恢复价盘，进口控货控渠

Core Viewpoint - Recent reports indicate that prices of certain infant formula brands, including Aptamil, Royal FrieslandCampina, Wyeth, Beingmate, and a2, have increased, primarily influenced by promotional activities on platforms and the recovery of domestic milk powder prices after a prolonged price war [1][4] Price Fluctuations - Consumer feedback on social media highlighted price increases for several milk powder brands, although investigations revealed that price changes were largely due to promotional activities rather than consistent price hikes [1][2] - Online channels showed significant price volatility for premium brands, with Royal FrieslandCampina's Stage 3 formula ranging from 298 yuan to 356 yuan per can, a difference of 58 yuan [2] - Offline channels reported stable prices for domestic brands, with promotional offers available in various supermarkets [2] Company Responses - Beingmate publicly stated that there have been no price increases for their products, urging consumers not to spread rumors [3] Market Dynamics - The infant formula market is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with domestic brands recovering from a price war while foreign brands maintain strict control over pricing and distribution [4] - The demand for ultra-premium formulas containing HMO and A2 protein is rising, with foreign brands leveraging price increases to uphold their high-end image [4] Raw Material Costs - The increase in prices for international bulk powder raw materials, such as whole and skim milk powder from New Zealand, is contributing to the rising costs of foreign brands [5] - Factors such as high European milk prices and inflation are impacting the cost of raw milk, which in turn affects consumer prices [5] Competitive Landscape - Foreign companies like Danone and FrieslandCampina dominate the ultra-premium segment of the infant formula market in China, with FrieslandCampina's market share leading among international brands [7] - Danone reported a 12.9% year-on-year sales growth in its specialized nutrition segment, driven by strong demand for its premium products [7] E-commerce Impact - The development of cross-border e-commerce is providing favorable conditions for foreign dairy companies, with policy adjustments since 2024 facilitating easier access to high-end formulas [8] - The ultra-premium formula market is projected to grow by 4.2% year-on-year, becoming a key growth driver in the industry [8] Strategic Directions - Industry experts suggest that companies should focus on three main areas: enhancing high-end product development, strengthening niche market offerings, and optimizing channel strategies to improve brand loyalty [8] - The future of the dairy industry is expected to shift towards service-oriented models, emphasizing comprehensive nutritional solutions over mere product sales [8]