前七月社融破23万亿元 信贷“小月”数据波动原因何在

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for July shows a notable increase in broad money (M2) and social financing scale, indicating a robust credit environment despite seasonal fluctuations and structural adjustments in the economy [1][2][4]. Monetary Data Summary - As of the end of July, M2 balance reached 329.94 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month and 2.5 percentage points from the same period last year [1]. - The narrow money (M1) balance was 111.06 trillion yuan, growing by 5.6% year-on-year, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous month [1]. - The total social financing scale stood at 431.26 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.0%, slightly up by 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. Credit Growth Analysis - The increase in social financing scale for the first seven months of 2025 reached 23.99 trillion yuan, which is 5.12 trillion yuan more than the previous year [2]. - The fluctuation in credit data during June and July is attributed to seasonal factors, policy adjustments, and structural optimization [3][4]. - The impact of local government bond replacements has significantly influenced loan data, with an estimated 2.6 trillion yuan in refinancing special bonds affecting loan growth by approximately 1 percentage point [4]. Credit Structure Optimization - By the end of July, the balance of RMB loans was 268.51 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 6.9%, which is notably higher than the nominal economic growth rate [5]. - The growth in loans for small and micro enterprises reached 35.05 trillion yuan, with an 11.8% year-on-year increase, while medium to long-term loans for the manufacturing sector grew by 8.5% [6]. Policy Coordination - The macroeconomic policy has been more proactive, with a significant increase in government bond issuance, which totaled 13.3 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, including 7.89 trillion yuan in national bonds [7]. - The government department's leverage ratio increased by 9 percentage points to 65.3%, while the leverage ratios for non-financial enterprises and households remained relatively stable [8]. - The ongoing fiscal policy aims to stimulate total demand and support economic recovery, which is expected to enhance credit demand and promote a positive cycle between finance and the real economy [8].