美债突破37万亿美元后，特朗普紧急呼吁美联储降息！美债会爆雷吗？对中国又会有什么影响？

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. national debt has surpassed $37 trillion, raising concerns about sustainability and potential economic repercussions for both the U.S. and global markets [1][3]. Group 1: U.S. National Debt Overview - The U.S. national debt has reached a historic high of $37 trillion, exceeding 114% of GDP, with debt growth outpacing economic capacity [3]. - Interest payments on the debt have surpassed military spending, with projections indicating that by 2025, interest payments will reach $1.2 trillion, accounting for 26.5% of federal revenue [3]. - Major credit rating agencies, including Moody's, Fitch, and S&P, have downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, warning that the debt is unsustainable [3]. Group 2: Economic Implications of Debt Management - Former President Trump has called for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce the cost of debt, while also advocating for significant tax cuts and tariffs to boost federal revenue [3][5]. - However, lowering interest rates could lead to higher inflation and create a "stagflation trap," while also potentially resulting in a vicious cycle of increasing debt [5]. - A significant reduction in interest rates could undermine trust in the U.S. dollar and its associated debt, leading to accelerated selling of U.S. bonds by investors [5]. Group 3: Risks of Debt Default - In the short term, the risk of a U.S. debt default is low due to the dollar's dominance and Federal Reserve interventions, but long-term reliance on "borrowing to pay" is unsustainable [7]. - A loss of investor confidence, further credit rating downgrades, or a significant sell-off of U.S. bonds could trigger a chain reaction leading to a debt crisis [7]. - A default would severely impact global financial markets, causing stock market crashes, dollar depreciation, and rising interest rates [7]. Group 4: Impact on China and Global Economy - China holds $759 billion in U.S. debt, making it the third-largest foreign holder; a decline in U.S. bonds could lead to significant asset devaluation [9]. - A depreciating dollar could increase import costs and exacerbate inflation, impacting China's manufacturing sector [9]. - The potential crisis could also present strategic opportunities for China, such as accelerating the internationalization of the yuan and promoting alternatives to the dollar [9].