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沪指创近四年新高 A股4000点可期?
Bei Jing Shang Bao·2025-08-13 16:31

Market Performance - A-shares have risen again, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking the previous high of 3674.4 points from October 8, 2024, reaching a maximum of 3688.63 points, marking the highest level since December 2021 [1][3] - As of the close on August 13, the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index reported gains of 0.48%, 1.76%, and 3.62% respectively, with year-to-date increases of 9.9%, 10.91%, and 16.57% [3] Bull Market Indicators - The current bull market is characterized by the need for the market to effectively break through the resistance levels of 3674 and 3731 points to be considered a true bull market [4][5] - If the market surpasses the 3731-point mark, a return to 4000 points for A-shares is seen as a matter of time, reflecting a revaluation of A-share valuations [5][6] Supporting Factors for Market Growth - The recent market rally is supported by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a revaluation of A-shares, with the former being a direct factor for the rise [4] - A significant shift of household deposits into A-shares and a continuous decline in risk-free interest rates have led to substantial inflows of new capital into the market [4] Policy Impact - Recent fiscal policies, including the implementation of interest subsidies for personal consumption loans and service industry loans, are expected to alleviate burdens on relevant sectors and support overall consumption [4] - The focus on service consumption in fiscal policy is anticipated to play a crucial role in sustaining overall consumption growth [4] Margin Trading Insights - The margin trading balance has returned to over 2 trillion yuan, a level not seen since the peak of the 2015 bull market, indicating a recovery in investor confidence [6] - Despite concerns that the margin balance exceeding 2 trillion yuan might signal a market peak, the overall market capitalization has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, reflecting a significant increase in market value compared to previous years [6]