樊纲：经济长期以来的问题是消费需求不足 完善社保机制有助于提振消费｜2025博鳌房地产论坛

Core Viewpoint - The long-standing issue of insufficient consumer demand in China's economy needs to be addressed to stimulate economic growth and enhance overall economic vitality [1][2]. Group 1: Current Economic Challenges - Insufficient consumer demand is identified as a significant challenge, with consumer spending accounting for only 40% of GDP in China, compared to 80% in the U.S. and 60-70% in other developing countries [2]. - Investment demand is also low due to market overcapacity and pessimistic expectations, contributing to the overall economic stagnation [2]. - The government has implemented various measures to boost consumption, including "old-for-new" policies for home appliances and the issuance of consumption vouchers [2]. Group 2: Policy Initiatives - Recent fiscal policies aim to enhance consumer demand and improve living standards, with a focus on both demand and supply sides [3]. - The Ministry of Finance is collaborating with relevant departments to implement these policies effectively, ensuring a positive cycle between supply and demand [3]. Group 3: Factors Influencing Consumption - Income, particularly wage income, is a critical determinant of consumption, with tax levels directly impacting disposable income [4]. - The social security mechanism plays a vital role in influencing consumption rates, as changes in social security can significantly affect savings and spending behavior [4]. - The concept of permanent income suggests that consumers are more likely to spend if they perceive a stable and ongoing income stream [4]. Group 4: Wealth Effect and Future Consumption Trends - The current decline in real estate prices has led to a reduction in perceived wealth, negatively impacting consumer spending [5]. - Future growth in consumption is expected to shift towards service-oriented sectors, including healthcare, entertainment, and tourism, as physical goods face overcapacity [7]. - The government is focusing on demand-side subsidies to stimulate consumption rather than directly supporting supply-side growth [8].