借新品唤回忆贵州茅台老酒行至分岔口

Core Viewpoint - The market for Moutai's old liquor, particularly the 70th anniversary of the Five-Star trademark, is experiencing significant demand and price increases, contrasting with the struggles faced by the Moutai Collectors Association, which has ceased operations due to financial pressures and market fluctuations [3][7][9]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The Moutai liquor (Five-Star trademark 70th anniversary) has seen terminal transaction prices ranging from 10,000 to 100,000 yuan, indicating a high premium in the secondary market [3]. - The overall price trend for the Moutai liquor (Five-Star trademark 70th anniversary) is on the rise, with a notable contrast to the declining prices of the 53-degree 500ml Flying Moutai [3][5]. - The Moutai old liquor market is estimated to be worth approximately 850 billion yuan, with an annual trading volume of about 110 billion yuan, accounting for over 85% of the total trading volume in the liquor industry [8]. Group 2: Challenges and Changes - The Moutai Collectors Association has ceased operations due to unclear policies and high operational costs, which have made it unsustainable [7]. - The auction market for Moutai old liquor has seen a significant drop in success rates, with a 91.67% failure rate in a recent auction, highlighting the volatility in the old liquor market [7]. - The lack of an official valuation standard for Moutai old liquor has led to inflated prices and concerns over long-term value management [8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The cessation of the Moutai Collectors Association may lead to a more regulated market, potentially benefiting the development of the Moutai old liquor sector [9]. - The successful launch of the Moutai liquor (Five-Star trademark 70th anniversary) demonstrates a new development model that leverages scarcity, cultural significance, and exclusivity to attract consumers [9].