海合会国家经济保持稳健增长态势（国际视点） 预计2025年经济增速有望升至3.2%，2026年升至4.5%

Economic Growth Projections - The World Bank's report predicts that the economic growth rate of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries will rise from 1.8% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025, and further to 4.5% by 2026, driven by the recovery of the oil and gas market, economic diversification, and sound fiscal policies [1][4][5] GCC Economic Performance - The GCC countries' economic growth rates range from 2.2% to 4.6%, with controlled inflation and stable sovereign debt outlooks [2] - The UAE's GDP is projected to grow at an average rate of 4.8% from 2021 to 2024, with the non-oil economy growing at 6.2% [2] - In the first half of this year, the UAE's non-oil foreign trade exceeded 1.7 trillion dirhams (approximately $463 billion), marking a historical high with a year-on-year increase of 24.5% [2] Saudi Arabia's Economic Resilience - Saudi Arabia, the largest economy in the GCC, is expected to see its GDP growth rate rise to 3.9% by 2026, with non-oil revenue reaching nearly $40 billion in Q2 this year, accounting for 49.7% of total government revenue [3] - The report highlights Saudi Arabia's significant progress in economic diversification, particularly in retail, dining, and hospitality sectors [3] Oman and Bahrain's Economic Strategies - Oman's public debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased from 68% in 2020 to 35% in 2024 due to effective fiscal management and economic diversification [3] - Bahrain has made notable strides in diversifying its economy, particularly in financial services, manufacturing, and tourism, with the financial services sector becoming the largest economic sector [3] Oil and Gas Market Dynamics - Oil exports remain a crucial economic pillar for GCC countries, with a projected 3% decrease in oil economic output in 2024 due to production cuts, while non-oil economy is expected to expand by 3.9% [4] - The OPEC statement indicates an increase in oil production by 547,000 barrels per day starting September, with voluntary production cuts announced in November [4] China-GCC Cooperation - China continues to be the largest trading partner and the top exporter of petrochemical products to the GCC, with trade volume expected to reach $288.09 billion in 2024 [6] - The establishment of the ASEAN-China-GCC summit is seen as a significant step towards enhancing economic trade integration among the three parties [7] - The implementation of visa-free policies for citizens of Saudi Arabia, Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain signifies a deepening of cooperation between China and GCC countries [7][8]