美国7月批发通胀或回升 消费者面临更大价格压力

Group 1 - The U.S. wholesale inflation rate is expected to show signs of recovery in July, indicating that businesses' ability to absorb high tariff costs is weakening, leading to increased pressure on consumer prices [1] - According to a FactSet survey, the Producer Price Index (PPI) is projected to rise by 2.4% year-on-year in July, slightly up from 2.3% in June, with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1] - Goldman Sachs economists indicate that as of June, U.S. companies have absorbed about 64% of tariff costs, but this figure may drop to below 10% in the coming months, resulting in more costs being passed on to consumers [1] Group 2 - Economists believe that the maximum impact of tariffs on inflation has yet to be felt, with the effective tariff rate rising from approximately 3% at the beginning of the year to 18% [2] - JPMorgan's chief U.S. economist estimates that tariffs could reduce U.S. GDP by about 1% and increase inflation by 1 to 1.5 percentage points [2] - Most institutions expect a limited upward pressure on inflation (0.3%-0.5% monthly), primarily as a temporary shock, which will not prevent the Federal Reserve from initiating rate cuts in late 2025 [2] Group 3 - The Blue Chip Economic Indicators August survey shows that the average GDP growth rate for the second half of the year is expected to be 0.85%, an increase from the previous forecast of 0.75% in July [3] - Analysts have adjusted their expectations regarding the impact of tariffs, anticipating a significant economic recovery in 2026 [3]