社会库存高企 期螺出现五连阴大跳水

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a downward trend in prices due to high inventory levels and lower-than-expected demand, but there are expectations for a rebound in the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" season [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Last week, the national rebar market prices fell slightly, with an overall decline of 10-30 yuan/ton, and a cumulative drop exceeding 100 yuan/ton [1]. - Steel production in September is at historically high levels, but sales remain flat compared to last year, contributing to recent price declines [2]. - Analysts indicate that despite the recent downturn, confidence among traders remains, with an increase in bullish sentiment for the steel market [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There are currently 12 planned production line repairs affecting 11 steel mills, expected to impact finished product output by approximately 46,150 tons per day [3]. - The overall operating rate of blast furnaces and rolling lines remains high, with steel mills showing strong production enthusiasm despite low profit margins [3]. - Regional inventory pressures are easing in the western and southern areas, while demand is slow to start in eastern, northern, and northeastern regions [4]. Group 3: Profitability and Future Outlook - Most steel enterprises are still profitable despite low margins, with plate manufacturers performing better than long product manufacturers [4]. - The steel market faces significant downward pressure due to high inventory levels and uncertainties related to potential COVID-19 outbreaks in the autumn and winter [4][5]. - There is a divergence in market sentiment regarding the upcoming demand, with some analysts cautioning against overly optimistic expectations for price increases [5].