黄金重启涨势的决定性因素有哪些？

Group 1: Gold Market Overview - International gold prices have maintained a high level of fluctuation after reaching a historical high, with support around $3200 per ounce [1] - The upward momentum for gold prices is contingent on additional positive factors, while previous drivers such as central bank purchases and investment demand are losing marginal effectiveness [1] - The ongoing de-dollarization process, frequent geopolitical crises, and a declining dollar exchange rate are preventing significant downward pressure on gold prices [1] Group 2: U.S. Economic Conditions - The risk of stagflation in the U.S. is increasing, with second-quarter economic growth primarily correcting distortions from the first quarter rather than indicating strengthened growth momentum [2] - Private domestic sales growth slowed to 1.2% in the second quarter, down from 1.9% in the first quarter, marking the slowest growth in domestic demand since Q4 2022 [2] - Employment data shows a significant drop in non-farm payrolls, with July's figures at 73,000, the lowest in nine months, and a downward revision of previous months' data [2] Group 3: Inflation and Consumer Prices - The impact of tariffs on U.S. prices has raised inflation concerns, with July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a 0.2% month-on-month increase and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations [3] - The increase in effective tax rates has further escalated inflation rates in import-intensive categories such as furniture and clothing [3] Group 4: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook - Following the release of July's employment data, some Federal Reserve policymakers are leaning towards a dovish stance, with discussions of potential rate cuts [4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is at 94.1%, with a 62.4% chance of a 50 basis point cut by October [4] - Increased demand for gold investments has been observed, with holdings in the SPDR Gold ETF rising to 964.2 tons, surpassing previous records [4] Group 5: Global Gold Demand - Global gold demand in Q2 increased by 3% year-on-year to 1248.8 tons, with investment demand remaining stable despite a decline in physical demand due to rising gold prices [5] - Investment demand for gold reached 477.2 tons in Q2, a 78% year-on-year increase, with significant growth in gold bars and coins [5] - In July, there was a further inflow of $3.2 billion into physically-backed gold ETFs [5] Group 6: Dollar Liquidity Risks - The U.S. Treasury has issued approximately $328 billion in short-term debt since raising the debt ceiling, which could drain liquidity from the financial system [6] - The cash balance in the Treasury General Account is expected to rise significantly, potentially impacting bank reserves and increasing the risk of dollar liquidity issues [6] - A decline in the usage of the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreements may lead to pressure in the financing market [6]