纯苯和苯乙烯：2024年价差波动，2025年先扩后缩

Core Insights - The research team conducted visits to 13 upstream and downstream production enterprises and traders of benzene and styrene in East China in 2024, confirming the price fluctuation patterns between benzene and styrene [1] - The relationship between supply and demand in the industrial chain allows for strategies to either long or short the price spread, reflecting the expansion or contraction of processing profits [1] - The price spread is expected to widen when styrene demand increases or when there is an oversupply of benzene, while a narrowing spread indicates an oversupply of styrene or rising costs of benzene [1] Industry Analysis - Benzene and styrene are both downstream chemical products of crude oil, with differing impacts from cost transmission [1] - Downstream demand has a greater influence on styrene, which exhibits higher price elasticity [1] - The significant fluctuations in the price spread between benzene and styrene in 2024 are attributed to external factors such as crude oil pricing logic and the lag in industrial chain transmission [1] Future Considerations - Since 2025, the price spread between styrene and benzene has first widened and then narrowed, influenced by phase mismatches and seasonal patterns [1] - Attention should be paid to the potential compression of profits in PO/SM and non-integrated processes, which may lead to unplanned production cuts or shutdowns of styrene facilities [1]