反倾销调查初裁“落地”，菜系期价“应声而起”

Core Viewpoint - The initial ruling of the anti-dumping investigation against Canadian canola seeds has led to a significant increase in domestic canola meal and oil prices, with expectations of continued upward pressure due to rising import costs and strong domestic demand [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The futures market for oilseeds has shown a strong performance, particularly in canola meal, with the RM2509 contract experiencing a daily increase of over 6% [1]. - The initial ruling determined a dumping margin of 75.8% for Canadian canola seeds, which will increase the cost of imports starting August 14 [2]. - Canada accounts for over 90% of domestic canola seed imports and over 70% of canola meal imports, making the ruling impactful on supply [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - The current peak demand for canola meal coincides with the busy season for aquaculture, creating a strong demand-supply dynamic [3]. - The supply of canola seeds is expected to decline in the fourth quarter due to the ongoing anti-dumping investigation, which could further support prices for canola meal and oil [2][3]. - Domestic canola meal inventory has decreased from approximately 900,000 tons to 630,000 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that canola meal prices will maintain a strong upward trend, while the price potential for canola oil may be less pronounced due to increased imports from other sources [3][4]. - The reliance on Canadian canola seeds is significant, and unless imports from Australia normalize, the price of canola meal is expected to continue rising [3][4]. - The competition from soybean meal, which remains a primary protein source, may limit the long-term price increases for canola meal [4].